Rule 10

The Only Constant is Change

8 minutes

February 22, 2025

Change is the only constant. This truth echoes through the halls of history, across all disciplines, and is especially relevant in the investment management industry today. As with any growing field, the investment management industry is still in its infancy. The principles and practices we hold dear today will undoubtedly shift as time progresses, much like the seismic changes that have shaped other fields such as medicine, engineering, and physics.

At Bellamont, we firmly believe that remaining open to change and challenging convention are critical for long-term success. We strive to go above and beyond for our clients by embracing new possibilities, adapting to the future, and maintaining a clear-eyed focus on what truly matters—delivering excellent results.

As the philosopher Heraclitus once said, “The only constant in life is change.” This perfectly encapsulates our approach at Bellamont, as we understand that embracing change is not a choice but a necessity in today’s fast-paced, evolving world.

CHANGE IN OTHER INDUSTRIES: MEDICINE, ENGINEERING, AND PHYSICS

THE DISCOVERY OF GERM THEORY IN MEDICINE

Let’s consider medicine, particularly the advent of germ theory. In the mid-19th century, doctors and scientists were still unsure of the causes of diseases. It was widely believed that illnesses were caused by ‘bad air’ or an imbalance in bodily humours. The idea that tiny organisms could be responsible for infections seemed far-fetched. That is, until Louis Pasteur and Robert Koch demonstrated the role of bacteria in disease transmission. Pasteur’s work on pasteurisation, which revolutionised food safety, and Koch’s postulates, which linked specific bacteria to particular diseases, challenged the prevailing views of the time.

Before germ theory became widely accepted, doctors didn’t even wash their hands between surgeries—a practice that seems shocking now. In fact, Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian physician, tried to implement hand-washing in hospitals and was ridiculed for it. Only later did germ theory validate his insights, and now hand hygiene is a non-negotiable standard in healthcare.

The transformation brought about by germ theory did more than just revolutionise medicine—it shifted the way we think about disease prevention and treatment, leading to vaccines, antibiotics, and modern public health systems. This dramatic evolution in thinking serves as a powerful reminder that industries must always be prepared for the kind of radical shifts that can redefine their entire landscape.

THE REINVENTION OF BRIDGES IN ENGINEERING

Engineering, too, has had its moments of monumental change. One such example is the reinvention of bridge construction in the 19th century. Before this period, bridges were primarily built with stone or wood, materials that severely limited the size and scale of structures. The construction of the Brooklyn Bridge in 1883 was a turning point that revolutionised modern civil engineering.

Designed by John A. Roebling, the Brooklyn Bridge was one of the first to use steel-wire cables, marking a leap forward in materials engineering. This bridge wasn’t just a marvel of its time due to its impressive span; it demonstrated the possibilities of combining innovative materials with new design principles. Roebling’s design faced numerous challenges, from the immense weight of the bridge to the tension in the steel cables. Yet, through creativity and scientific rigour, the engineering team overcame these challenges, creating one of the most iconic structures in history.

The Brooklyn Bridge’s success didn’t just expand what was possible in bridge construction—it paved the way for even larger and more ambitious infrastructure projects worldwide. By daring to embrace new materials and innovative thinking, engineers moved the field forward and set the stage for the skyscrapers, highways, and modern cities we see today.

As Albert Einstein famously noted, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” This sentiment rings true in all industries, including investment management. The ability to challenge old ideas and innovate is what propels industries forward, unlocking new potentials.

THE QUANTUM LEAP IN PHYSICS

Physics has undergone perhaps one of the most dramatic paradigm shifts of all. For centuries, Isaac Newton’s laws of motion were viewed as the irrefutable laws of the universe. Everything from gravity to the movement of the planets was explained by his theories, which were the foundation of classical physics. However, in the early 20th century, a new theory emerged that turned the scientific world upside down: quantum mechanics.

One of the most mind-bending aspects of quantum theory was Werner Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle, which suggested that we cannot precisely know both the position and momentum of a particle at the same time. To put it simply, the microscopic world behaves in ways that defy common sense. This challenged centuries of Newtonian physics, but it also opened the door to a new realm of technological innovation.

Today, quantum mechanics is responsible for technologies like MRI machines, semiconductors, and even the development of quantum computers, which are set to revolutionise fields from cryptography to pharmaceuticals. Quantum mechanics shows that holding onto old paradigms can limit progress; by being open to new ideas, physicists were able to discover a whole new world of possibilities.

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT: IN ITS INFANCY

Just as these industries have undergone profound changes, the investment management industry is poised for its own evolution. While medicine, engineering, and physics have developed over centuries, conventional investing strategies—like Modern Portfolio Theory, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and Mean-Variance Optimisation (MVO)—have only been in practice for a few decades. Compared to these other fields, investing is still very much in its infancy. The principles and models we rely on today, while useful, are based on underlying assumptions that often fail to hold up in real-world conditions.

Take CAPM, for example. It assumes a linear relationship between risk and return, and that all investors have access to the same information and act rationally. In practice, however, markets are far more complex—irrational behaviour, information asymmetry, and emotional decision-making all play significant roles. Similarly, MVO assumes that investors can accurately predict future returns and volatility, which is rarely the case. These models also tend to underestimate extreme risks and market shocks, as evidenced by events like the 2008 financial crisis.

We believe it’s critical to apply the core principles of these models thoughtfully, rather than follow them blindly. While they provide valuable frameworks, trying to distil all the complexities of the market into one model that adequately captures every scenario is unrealistic. The door is wide open for new models and theories that better reflect real-world dynamics. Instead of placing an over-reliance on overly complex models, we focus on core beliefs that are clear, simple, and adaptable to various situations.

At Bellamont, we recognise the need to adapt. Being open to change is not about abandoning core principles but rather ensuring they remain relevant as the world evolves. Our commitment to quality, independence, and long-term partnership means that we constantly strive to refine and enhance our approach, using logic and sound judgement to guide us through uncertainty.

As Charles Darwin said, “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” This quote speaks to the importance of adaptability—not just in nature, but in business, finance, and life.

HOLDING CORE TRUTHS, BUT STAYING ADAPTABLE

One of our ten investment philosophies is to embrace change while adhering to core truths. While nothing is permanent, certain principles can withstand the test of time. In an industry where volatility is ever-present, the ability to discern these enduring truths from temporary trends is crucial.

For us, this means staying grounded in the belief that long-term thinking and a focus on quality will always drive superior outcomes. It also means remaining agile and ready to pivot when needed—whether in response to regulatory shifts, economic disruptions, or market innovations. To deliver exceptional results, we must be unconstrained by tradition and willing to challenge convention, but always with logic and reason as our guide.

As Mahatma Gandhi so wisely remarked, “Constant development is the law of life. And a man who always tries to maintain his dogmas in order to appear consistent drives himself into a false position.” This quote reflects the importance of allowing evolution in thought, without being rigidly bound by the past.

CONCLUSION

The investment management industry is at an exciting point in its development, filled with opportunities to rethink old paradigms and embrace new ones. Much like the advancements we’ve seen in medicine, engineering, and physics, the future will bring about changes that reshape the way we view wealth, risk, and opportunity.

At Bellamont, we are committed to navigating this ever-evolving landscape by staying open-minded, adaptive, and deeply dedicated to our clients. By going above and beyond, we ensure that no matter how much the world changes, our clients’ success remains our constant focus.

As author Alvin Toffler said, “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” We take this to heart, recognising that excellence requires not just adapting to change but mastering it.

Change is inevitable. Excellence is intentional. Together, we embrace both.

RISK & DISCLOSURES

Information in this document regarding market or economic trends, or the factors influencing historical or future performance, reflects the opinions of management as of the date of this document. These statements should not be relied upon for any other purpose. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee that the market forecasts discussed will be realised.